Mazzula Ball is a losing proposition
Right on cue, the Celtics drop a very winnable game in their first test out West. The Celtics clearly have daddy issues, because Steph Curry is that guy. Steph Curry is the Celtics daddy.
I went on a big rant this week already about the soft natured Tatum and Brown lead Boston Celtics here. So, I won’t do that again even though they deserve it after blowing the 17 point lead and getting shoved in a locker the final 4 minutes. The same nut shriveling kind of play this team is beginning to be known for. But, I digress. They have another problem. Their system sucks.
Joe Mazzula is a freaking nerd. I hate how much him and this organization focuses in on the three point attempt like THEY are the Golden State Warriors. It’s loser basketball. They only know how to win one way. Shoot at least 30% from behind the line. And even then it’s no guarantee they win. Live by the 3, die by the 3 . Ever heard of it?
Here’s the facts. The Celtics have lost 6 games this season. In four of them they have shot less than 30% from three. In the other 2 losses they shot 32% from behind the arc with an average margin of defeat of…. 3. So, what does that tell you? If the Celtics shoot under 30% from three they are guaranteed to lose that game, but over 30% there is no guaranteed win. They have only won 3 games in which they shot under 35% from 3. That’s a losing proposition, because you have no other way to win a basketball game. Lets make this even more clear.
The Celtics lead the league in 3PA with a little over 42 a game. They are 15th in 3FG percentage. Not great. They have the most 3pt FG made per game at 15.8, but are only 8th in total points per game. Can some one explain to me how the 3 point attempt is so important? It’s not. It’s a crutch. A crippling crutch.
One more deep dive into the numbers. Last year’s playoffs saw the Celtics fail to record a 30% or better mark from the 3 point line just four times. Three of those were losses. The fourth was a game 6 miraculous win in Miami which took a bail out buzzer beater from Derek White. The rest of the losses all came to the Heat. The rest of the playoffs they shot FOURTY % from behind the line. And still lost 4 games.
Look, the additions of Porzingus and Holiday improve this team’s likely hood of shooting in the mid 30% from distance every night. They are eclipsing that mark in 84% of their games this season. If you extrapolate that to the playoffs over the course of a maximum 28 game run to win a championship that’s only 4 losses. The problem is that’s all it takes.