Celtics By the Numbers: In the Clutch
The Celtics clinched home court through the playoffs with their 60th win of the season. They are the first Celtics team to hit the 60 win mark since the 2008 Championship team with Pierce, Garnett, Ray Allen, and Co. They have been the best team in the NBA since the season started. They have the best starting 5 by far. Their bench has proven to be consistant with Horford, Pritchard, and Hauser. They can even rely on spot contributions from the Kornet’s or Xaviar Tillmans of the world. So what is standing in their way of a championship? Other than the Denver Nuggets, themselves.
The Celtics fatal flaw very well could be their inability to execute in close and late situations. We are certainly dealing on the margins here. The Celtics don’t often find themselves in situations where they are in a close game at the end of the 4th quarter. Most of the season has seen teams pack it in by the 2nd quarter. The Playoffs are a different animal and the further they advance they more frequent these clutch situations will pop up. So, lets deep dive into the numbers to discover how bad the Celtics actually are when the pressure has mounted.
Celtics by the numbers - Clutch time stats
Baseline stats
Record: 60-16
1st in 3pt attempts: 42.5. Three more attempts a game than the 2nd place team, Dallas Mavericks who clock in at 39.4
1st in 3pt % : 39%
14th in Assists - 26.8
29th in points in the paint
22nd in FT attempts
Clutch stats
5 pt game 5 min left
11th - 20-12
4 pt game 4 minutes left
16th - 15-12
3 pt game 3 min
17th - 12-12
2pt game 2 min
16th 9-11
1pt game 1 minute
23rd 4-8
under 30 seconds 1-3 point game
under .500 9-12
Anyone with The Obvious One level of math comprehension can identify a pattern with these stats. As the score gets closer, the time gets lower, the buttholes get tighter. Resulting in … Losses.
We’ve all seen the approach in these games. More or less it’s iso ball with Tatum walking it up the court trying to score 45 feet from the basket with no time left on the clock. The loss to the Cavs in February after blowing a 19 point 4th quarter lead was the game that forced me to label these guys as “Dumb, front running, Pussies.” That may be over stating it a touch, but this is no longer a trend or pattern. It’s an identity. Jayson Tatum abandoning the offense and giving a shitty Kobe Bryant impression has proven not to work. Want some proof? Lets look at the individual numbers of the Boston Celtics to ALL NBA Stars.
Clutch Player Stats
5 pt game 5 min left
Tatum - 18-11 - 119.3 offrating - 33.3 usage
Brown - 17-12 - 119.1 offrating - 21.4 usage
4 pt game 4 min left
Tatum - 13-11. 112.6 offrating. - 32.6 usage
Brown - 13-12. 111.6 offrating. - 19.8 usage
3pt game 3 min left
Tatum- 10-11 103.9 offrating - 32 usage
Brown - 11-12 100.9 offrating - 19.2 usage
2pt game 2 min left
Tatum - 7-10 - 98.4 offrating 33.8 usage
Brown - 8-11 - 10.0 offrating - 15.9 usage
1 pt game 1 min left
Tatum - 3-7 - 61.5 offrating - 25.8 usage
Brown - 3-8 - 90.9 offrating - 25 usage
And there is your identity. In a fairly comforatble situation with four or five minutes left Tatum and Brown are All-Stars. Once you enter butthole time we watch their efficiency and success plumet. For Tatum a 119 Offensive Rating nose dives all the way to a 61.5 Offensive rating. Yuck.
How does this compare to their contemporaries across the league? Glad you asked.
2 pt game. 1 min left
Jayson Tatum 16 games - 7-9. off-rating - 75.0. usage 32.6
Jaylen Brown - 17 games - 7-10. 74.4 off rating - usage 19.1
Paul George - 12 games. 7-5 181.3 offrating . usage 30
James Harden - 11 games. 7-4. 100.5 offrating. usage 12.5
Kawhi Leonard - 13 games 7-6. 17-.6 offrating. usage 22.2
Luka Doncic - 9 games. 6-3. 153.3 offrating. usage: 40
Kyrie Irving- 9 games 7-2. 171.4 offrating. usage: 22.2
Kevin Durant - 18 games. 10-8. 114.3 offrating. 32.1 usage
Devin Booker - 16 games. 10-6. 145.7 offrating 26.8 usage
Dame Lillard - 14 games. 9-5. 107.9 offrating. 44.7 rating
Giannis - 14 games 8-6. 105.7 offrating 27.3 usage
As you can see the higher echelon players elevate their play when the moment calls for it. Up to this point we can not say that for the Celtics.
I am not one who believes they can front run themselves to a championship. They will be forced to win some of these games. I’m not syaing they can’t. No one believed in Steph before he did it. Everyone called Jokic a underperformer in the playoffs until he won. Michael Jordan was doubted, Lebron, etc. You can’t do it, until you do it. If Tatum and Brown don’t figure out how to do it, I don’t see them bringing banner 18 back to Boston this year.